President increasingly likely to win US election

President increasingly likely to win US election

US President Donald Trump’s handling of the economy has reached a new high, according to the latest Gallup poll.

Americans are now much more likely to approve of Mr Trump as president than in January, rising from 37 per cent approval to 43 per cent.

His overall approval rating is approaching that of former president Bill Clinton at the 775th day of their presidencies, according to FiveThirtyEight, which aggregates polls.

According to that metric, Mr Clinton, who was re-elected, had a 45.1 per cent approval rating compared with Mr Trump’s average rating of 41.9 per cent.

MSNBC Morning Joe host Joe Scarborough, a Trump critic, said Mr Trump’s poll numbers reminded him of Mr Clinton.

He said the more bad news that Mr Clinton received during his presidency, the higher his approval ratings.

“By the time (Mr Clinton) was impeached, and it was evident he had committed perjury … his approval rating was over 60 per cent,” Mr Scarborough said.

“Donald Trump faced one of his worst weeks last week, and his numbers appear to be coming up.

“This is about as high as Trump has got.”

Mr Trump’s job approval rating jumped to 46 per cent, up three points. His disapproval rating fell three points to 52 per cent, according to an NBC News | Wall Street Journal poll.

He’s popular with Republicans (88 per cent), rural residents (60 per cent), whites with college degrees (60 per cent), men (54 per cent) and whites (54 per cent).

He’s least popular with African-Americans — 88 per cent disapprove of him. He’s also unpopular with Latinos (64 per cent) and women (61 per cent).


So can Mr Trump win the next election?

The NBC News | Wall Street Journal poll shows 41 per cent of Americans will “definitely or probably” vote for Mr Trump in 2020, while 48 per cent are favouring a Democratic candidate.

Those numbers are worse than former president Barack Obama, who led a hypothetical opponent by five points, and close to Mr Clinton’s numbers at the same time in their presidencies. In January 1995, only 38 per cent of Americans said they would re-elect then-president Mr Clinton.

Conservative commentator Michael Steele said Mr Trump would be pleased with the polling.

“With the core of his base, and certainly elements within the general population, there’s something about Trump that is very appealing,” he said.

“For a lot of those folks, behind those numbers, is the state of the current economy.

“Where things are for those individuals, their families, their job prospects, their small businesses, are still relatively good.

“Yes, there are weaknesses around the edges, there are concerns about whether a recession will kick in by the second or third quarter of this year.

“But right now in this moment people feel very, very good.

“He’s in a good spot as he wakes up this morning.

“He’s probably looking at the numbers and going ‘what do the Democrats have to offer, what are you going to beat me with?’”

Mr Trump has been written off countless times before he ran, during the election and since he became president. But the latest poll numbers suggest he can win the 2020 election.

Continue the conversation with Andrew Backhouse on Twitter.

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